Years from now Event
10,000 Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to
Frank Drake's original formulation of the
Drake equation.
[122]
10,000 If
globalization trends lead to
panmixia,
human genetic variation will no longer be regionalized, as the
effective population size will equal the actual population size.
[123] This does not mean
homogeneity, as minority traits will still be preserved, e.g. the
blonde gene will not disappear, but it will be rather evenly distributed worldwide.
10,000 Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct by this date, according to
Brandon Carter's formulation of the controversial
Doomsday argument, which argues that half of the humans who will ever have lived have probably already been born.
[124]
20,000 According to the
glottochronology linguistic model of
Morris Swadesh, future languages should retain just 1 out of 100 "core vocabulary" words on their
Swadesh list compared to that of their current progenitors.
[125]
100,000+ Time required to
terraform Mars with an
oxygen-rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.
[126]
1 million Estimated shortest time by which humanity could colonize our Milky Way galaxy and become capable of
harnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a velocity of 10% the
speed of light.
[127]
2 million Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo
allopatric speciation.
[128] Evolutionary biologist
James W. Valentine predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolated
space colonies over this time, the galaxy will host an
evolutionary radiation of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us".
[129] This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate
genetic enhancement technologies.
7.8 million Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct by this date, according to
J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial
Doomsday argument, which argues that we have probably already lived through half the duration of human history.
[130]
100 million Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to
Frank Drake's original formulation of the
Drake equation.
[131]
1 billion Estimated time for an
astroengineering project to alter the
Earth's orbit, compensating for the Sun's rising brightness and outward migration of the
habitable zone, accomplished by repeated asteroid
gravity assists.
[132][133]